MD 1570 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1570 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018 Areas affected...portions of far West Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121944Z - 122145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple of strong/locally severe storms could evolve this afternoon near the higher terrain of west Texas. WW issuance is not anticipated for this potential/initial risk. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery indicated TCU development over the higher terrain of far West Texas -- i.e. portions of Jeff Davis, Brewster, and Pecos Counties, where clearing of the cloud cover has allowed differential heating to occur over the higher terrain. With modest (low 60s) dewpoints indicated across this region, the heating has contributed to gradual destabilization (surface-based CAPE values in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range per latest objective analyses). The cu field remains suppressed away from the high terrain, indicative of modest larger-scale ascent at best. Even over the higher terrain, TCU continue to shed any glaciated tops, again suggestive of a larger-scale environment not yet supportive of robust deep updrafts. With time, continued heating and the gradual approach of Sergio from the west may support isolated CB development over the mountains through diurnal peak heating. With moderately strong west-southwesterly mid-level flow, updraft organization -- and possible, attendant risk for hail -- could occur locally. This risk however should remain isolated at best into the evening hours. Later this evening, as Sergio continues to approach, more substantial convective development/coverage is expected, which could result in the need for WW issuance consideration at that time. ..Goss/Grams.. 10/12/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30640426 31030401 31340319 31260272 31220254 30950208 30530199 29960268 29370339 29890403 30640426
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