MD 1582 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN MN…ERN ND
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1582 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN MN...ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 021116Z - 021345Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR-HAIL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. DISCUSSION...A RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN ND INTO NWRN MN WITHIN A BAND OF ASCENT RELATED TO A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CROSSING THE REGION PER WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY. CLOUD-TOP COOLING IMPLIED BY IR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS THE WWD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INTO THE REGION...WHERE A FEED OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEING MAINTAINED FROM THE W. TSTMS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AMIDST MUCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR...AIDED BY AROUND 50 KT OF DEEP SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE MVX VWP. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER ELEVATED BUOYANCY DISPLACED ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE UPPER MS RIVER AND POINTS EWD...THE SVR-HAIL RISK SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/MARGINAL. ..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 08/02/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 46999736 47489548 46819449 45919539 46119687 46999736
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1MFt4H0
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