MD 1584 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1584
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0619 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020
Areas affected...Northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula
of Michigan
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 262319Z - 270045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Periodic intensification within a line of storms is
possible over the next couple of hours. Isolated hail and perhaps
damaging wind are possible, but a watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Radar imagery over the past hour from KDLH has shown a
growing line of thunderstorms along the southwestern shores of Lake
Superior/northern WI. A few intense cores have been noted in MRMS
vertically integrated ice data as well as cooling top temperatures
in IR imagery, but these cores have largely failed to maintain
intensity for more than 10 minutes or so. This is largely due to
increasing inhibition with eastward extent that is so far limiting
the severe potential of this line. However, RAP forecast soundings
suggest that gradual cooling in the 850-700 mb layer, associated
with the approach of a weak shortwave trough, may help reduce
inhibition over the next couple of hours. Around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE
and 35-40 knots of effective bulk shear should remain in place
across northern WI/western U.P of MI, and although the potential for
severe hail and wind is low, this environment could support brief
intensifications along the line that may be capable of severe hail
and damaging winds. Due to the low probability of sustained severe
convection, a watch is not expected.
..Moore/Guyer.. 08/26/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...
LAT...LON 46479199 46829162 46959052 46918928 46808865 46438824
46198873 46068965 46139093 46219182 46479199
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