SPC MD 1594

MD 1594 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NWRN MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1594
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 030550Z - 030815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINGERING SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN MO. WW 464 WAS PREVIOUSLY
LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME ACROSS PART OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...WEAK ASCENT ATOP RESIDUAL OUTFLOW -- DEPOSITED BY
EARLIER CONVECTION THAT SPREAD SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF N-CNTRL/CNTRL 
MO -- IS MAINTAINING A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NODAWAY
COUNTY TO MERCER COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FED BY FLUXES OF
HIGH THETA-E AIR EMANATING FROM LOCATIONS SW OF THE OUTFLOW 
BOUNDARY -- E.G. SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S IN NERN KS. WITH THE EARLIER 00Z TOP RAOB
SAMPLING MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 6.8 C PER KM
IN THE H7-H5 LAYER/ THERE WILL BE A CONTINUING RISK FOR A FEW
INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORES. ISOLATED SVR HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
THE SHORT TERM AS TSTMS SLOWLY ADVANCE SEWD/SSEWD. HOWEVER...WITH
THE EAX VWP SUGGESTING OVERALL WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW THAT IS LIMITING
THE STRENGTH OF WAA...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AS IMPLIED BY MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY...OVERALL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS NOCTURNAL MLCINH GROWS. AS SUCH...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 08/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...

LAT...LON   39609416 40119497 40379519 40489492 40479357 39839298
            39509347 39609416 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1OZ2cA5