SPC MD 1595

MD 1595 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR ERN KS / WRN AND NWRN MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1595
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS / WRN AND NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 261854Z - 262100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/SEVERE GUSTS.  A
TORNADIC SUPERCELL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  WILL MONITOR THE AREA FOR THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A TORNADO WATCH PERHAPS BEING NEEDED BY 21Z.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE-SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE CU FIELD
ACROSS ERN KS INTO WRN MO AND SEVERAL TRANSVERSE WAVES ARE ALSO
IMPLIED.  ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS WEAKLY
CAPPED...SWELLING CU IS LOCATED NEAR TOPEKA WHERE STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS OCCURRING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  SURFACE TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 80 DEG F
AND ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL OCCUR AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR
70 DEG F.  EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS
CONSIDERABLY IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL WHILE STRENGTHENING WITH
HEIGHT PER KTWX AND KEAX WSR-88D VAD DATA.  THIS STRENGTHENING AND
VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT AGREES WITH THE DEPICTION OF THE WIND
PROFILE FROM RECENT RAP MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN KS/WRN
MO.  ONCE SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OCCURS...THE
STRONGER DEVELOPING UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY ACQUIRE ROTATION AND BECOME
SUPERCELLS.  AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/SEVERE GUSTS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE MORE INTENSE CORES.  SHORT-TERM
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A CELLULAR MODE AT
LEAST EARLY DURING THE STORM LIFECYCLE.  GIVEN THESE FACTORS...A
SUPERCELL-TORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

..SMITH/GUYER.. 08/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   38739557 38839649 39279684 39829663 40199492 39839396
            39119374 38739557 

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