MD 1595 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL OHIO TO CENTRAL INDIANA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1595
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OHIO TO CENTRAL INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 030706Z - 030930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SWD ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL OHIO TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE EARLY-MORNING HOURS.
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH
ADDITIONAL SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE UNLIKELY. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A W/E-ORIENTED SQUALL LINE
STRETCHING FROM NEAR MFD TO N OF LAF MOVING SWD AROUND 30 KT.
SINGLE-SITE RADAR DATA SAMPLING THIS LINE SUGGEST THAT ITS
ACCOMPANYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERALLY LIES AHEAD OF THE PARENT
CONVECTION. WITH AREA VWPS SAMPLING GENERALLY SQUALL-LINE-PARALLEL
LOW/MID-LEVEL MEAN FLOW...THE IMPLIED ANAFRONTAL CONFIGURATION OF
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS IT SPREADS SWD.
NEVERTHELESS...A FEED OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW -- REF
00Z ILX RAOB SAMPLING AROUND 13.0-13.5 G PER KG MEAN MIXING RATIO --
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION ATOP THE
ESTABLISHED COLD POOL. DESPITE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE
PBL...IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS /AROUND -65C/
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION ARE BEING MAINTAINED.
THIS IS IN PROXIMITY TO A PLUME OF 1.00-1.50-INCH PW EXTENDING NEWD
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY PER GPS DATA. FURTHERMORE...WITH
MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY UPSTREAM 00Z RAOBS
FACILITATING ELEVATED BUOYANCY...A CONTINUED SWD SAG OF THE ONGOING
SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING -- REACHING
COLUMBUS OHIO TO INDIANAPOLIS IN THE 0815Z-0930Z TIME FRAME.
ULTIMATELY...CONTINUING NOCTURNAL GAINS IN STATIC STABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND OF THIS CONVECTION AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
IS LACKING...BASED UPON MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY. IN THE
MEANTIME...ILN AND IND VWPS SAMPLED 30-40 KT OF FLOW ABOVE THE SFC
IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL...INDICATING THAT CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT COULD AID IN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS...WITH THE LIMA
OHIO ASOS RECENTLY REPORTING A 50-KT WIND GUST. HOWEVER...THE
GROWING MLCINH AND ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD
GREATLY LIMIT ADDITIONAL SVR-WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
EARLY-MORNING HOURS. REGARDLESS...LOCALIZED STRONG-WIND GUSTS
CAPABLE OF SPORADIC DAMAGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 08/03/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 39678729 40238666 40458417 40478301 40038280 39508302
39258467 39118684 39678729
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1OZanwj
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