MD 1596 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NERN KS…SERN NEB…NWRN MO…AND FAR SWRN IA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1596 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN KS...SERN NEB...NWRN MO...AND FAR SWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 031644Z - 031845Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR A LARGE HAIL REPORT OR TWO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR BROWN COUNTY KS EWD TO DAVIESS COUNTY MO LATE THIS MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A SUBTLE IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...AND AN ATTENDANT MASS RESPONSE/WEAK WAA ATOP A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. THE 12Z TOP RAOB EXHIBITS RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST VERTICAL ACCELERATION. ADDITIONALLY...UPWARDS OF 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS AVAILABLE FOR WEAK UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION...WHICH WOULD BOLSTER HAIL GROWTH AS WELL. THUS...A COUPLE OF LARGE HAIL REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY LIMITED SPATIOTEMPORAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..PICCA/HART.. 08/03/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 39849297 39369288 38789308 38409403 38779582 39569743 40389760 41109742 41169557 40899388 40829382 40179322 39849297
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1weV6BV
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