SPC MD 1596

MD 1596 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NERN KS…SERN NEB…NWRN MO…AND FAR SWRN IA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN KS...SERN NEB...NWRN MO...AND FAR
SWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 031644Z - 031845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE
A THREAT FOR A LARGE HAIL REPORT OR TWO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR BROWN COUNTY KS EWD TO DAVIESS COUNTY MO
LATE THIS MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A SUBTLE IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN NWLY FLOW
ALOFT...AND AN ATTENDANT MASS RESPONSE/WEAK WAA ATOP A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. THE 12Z TOP RAOB EXHIBITS
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST
VERTICAL ACCELERATION. ADDITIONALLY...UPWARDS OF 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR IS AVAILABLE FOR WEAK UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION...WHICH
WOULD BOLSTER HAIL GROWTH AS WELL. THUS...A COUPLE OF LARGE HAIL
REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...DUE TO
THE LACK OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY LIMITED
SPATIOTEMPORAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

..PICCA/HART.. 08/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   39849297 39369288 38789308 38409403 38779582 39569743
            40389760 41109742 41169557 40899388 40829382 40179322
            39849297 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1weV6BV