MD 1597 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1597
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017
Areas affected...Southern Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 291909Z - 292145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A sporadic storm or two may briefly become severe with
wind or brief tornado threat through late afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery and surface observations show
heating across far southern LA, along and south of an east-west
oriented stationary front. South of this front, a tropical air mass
exists with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s contributing to around
1000 J/kg MLCAPE.
Scattered showers and storms are generally forming near the front as
warm air streams northward. Recently, there have been indications of
better low-level buoyancy which is helping a few cells to exhibit
weak low-level rotation, and higher echo tops in general. The
strongest storms are most likely near the boundary where lift and
shear are maximized and supportive of a supercell. An isolated storm
or two may produce a brief/weak tornado and/or strong wind gust in
association with mesocylonic rotation.
..Jewell/Grams.. 08/29/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 29649333 29769364 30099375 30319333 30479237 30339136
30189041 29968977 29628928 29258902 28948904 28868950
28989068 29399194 29509267 29649333
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1vo5p2r
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