MD 1599 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA…WESTERN OH AND ADJACENT NORTHERN KY TO SOUTHEAST LOWER MI
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...WESTERN OH AND ADJACENT
NORTHERN KY TO SOUTHEAST LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 271727Z - 271930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OH INCLUDING THE
ADJACENT COUNTIES IN NORTHERN KY IN VICINITY OF THE CINCINNATI METRO
AREA...WHILE THIS POTENTIAL ALSO EXTENDS NORTH THROUGH WESTERN OH TO
SOUTHEAST LOWER MI. A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO...AND/OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT WILL BE THE GREATEST CONCERNS...THOUGH
OVERALL SEVERE-WEATHER RISK SHOULD TEND TO REMAIN LOW. IF TRENDS IN
STORM INTENSITY ACROSS A LARGER AREA INCREASE...THEN A WATCH COULD
NOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED STORMS INCREASING IN INTENSITY FROM
SOUTHEAST INDIANA NORTHWARD IN VICINITY AND EITHER SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO BORDER AREAS. THIS RECENT
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING AS
NNE-SSW ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...ATTENDANT TO MORNING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
INDIANA...ADVANCED EASTWARD INTO A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE RECENT
INITIATION OF STORMS ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING...WITH
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S IN
SOUTHEAST LOWER MI TO AROUND 90 IN THE CINCINNATI METRO AREA. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN THE FURTHER EROSION OF SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION THAT
WAS DETECTED ON THE 12Z ILN SOUNDING. CU DEVELOPMENT PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OH TO FAR SOUTHEAST
LOWER MI IS A FURTHER INDICATION OF THE ONGOING STRONG
DESTABILIZATION AND ELIMINATION OF THE INHIBITION.
SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSES INDICATED A CORRIDOR OF CONFLUENCE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE STORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST INDIANA TO
SOUTHEAST LOWER MI...WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS BEING AUGMENTED BY
A COUPLE OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THIS
REGION. VAD DATA SHOWED STRONGER BULK SHEAR INTO NORTHWEST
OH/SOUTHEAST LOWER MI...WITH SHEAR TENDING TO BE WEAKER WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT. HOWEVER...STRONGER INSTABILITY INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST OH...AND APPARENT COLD-POOL ENHANCEMENT TO THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST OH...ADJACENT NORTHERN KY AND THE
CINCINNATI METRO AREA THROUGH 19-20Z. FARTHER NORTH...STRONGER BULK
SHEAR MAY COMPENSATE SOME FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
..PETERS/GUYER.. 08/27/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 38658533 39108520 39568523 40248488 41098454 41538437
42338377 42438331 42288305 41448297 40888319 39998341
39098341 38788350 38538386 38478470 38658533
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2bVFQCV
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