SPC MD 1610

MD 1610 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470… FOR PORTIONS OF SRN NEB…WRN/NRN KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1610
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN NEB...WRN/NRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470...

VALID 042029Z - 042230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS WW 470 THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A PERSISTING THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. ADDITIONAL NEAR-SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF THE WATCH...BUT THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE NEW WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SWRN
NEB/NWRN KS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MULTIPLE REPORTS OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. CELLS ACROSS NWRN KS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
PROGRESS SEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH NEW CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MODULATED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AS WELL AS
OUTFLOW COLLISIONS/MERGERS. MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS SHOULD SUSTAIN ORGANIZATION OF THE
STRONGEST CELLS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS. WHILE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS MANIFEST ITSELF IN
RELATIVELY OUTFLOW-DOMINANT SUPERCELLS...STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS
MAY STILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.

FORCING FOR ASCENT ALOFT/WEAK WAA IS FOCUSING NEW CONVECTION EAST OF
THE CURRENT WATCH. WHILE SOME MARGINAL HAIL/WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
HERE /INCLUDING THE FAIRLY ROBUST-APPEARING BOWING SEGMENT OVER
FRONTIER AND GOSPER COUNTIES IN NEB/...CLOUD DEBRIS/LACK OF GREATER
DESTABILIZATION SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE NEW WATCH ISSUANCE.

..PICCA.. 08/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   40589907 39649731 39259693 38429784 38239998 38720158
            39400208 40330217 40930051 40589907 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1zpcAYq