SPC MD 1616

MD 1616 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472… FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS…SOUTHWEST MO…NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1616
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0808 AM CDT WED AUG 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST
MO...NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472...

VALID 051308Z - 051445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE STRONGEST STORMS IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD REMAIN
LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING
MCS...AS THIS SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OK...FAR SOUTHWEST MO...AND POTENTIALLY INTO NORTHWEST AR.  OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH TRENDS BEING MONITORED LATER THIS MORNING OR INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR ANY RE-INTENSIFICATION.

DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED WARMING CLOUD TOPS WITH
THE ESEWD-MOVING MCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS...WHILE THE ATTENDANT
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS DISPLACE 12-25 MILES SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHWEST OF THE RELATIVELY STRONGER STORMS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST KS.  THE VEERED LLJ WITH A MORE WLY COMPONENT SUGGESTS THE
STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LOCATED ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF THIS
MCS AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OK.  THE
COMBINATION OF OVERALL WARMING CLOUD TOPS...DIMINISHING TRENDS IN
7-KM AND 9-KM CAPPI...AND EXPECTED WEAKENING OF THE WLY LLJ THIS
MORNING SUGGESTS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE HEATING OF A DOWNSTREAM MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS
EASTERN OK INTO WESTERN AR WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY POTENTIAL NEW
TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND/OR RE-INTENSIFICATION AS THE LEADING EXTENT OF
THE MCS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ADVANCE INTO SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHEAST OK
AND NORTHWEST AR.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AT THAT TIME.

..PETERS.. 08/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   38129774 37789650 37919538 37739421 37329348 36499298
            35519328 35239468 35449652 35949743 37129821 37729813
            38129774 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1hjep7A