MD 0162 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI…FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS…AND FAR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0162
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2020
Areas affected...western/southwestern Missouri...far southeastern
Kansas...and far northeastern Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 092041Z - 092245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated risk of damaging wind gusts may evolve with
gradually increasing convection across east-central Kansas over the
next couple hours or so. A WW is not anticipated for this activity.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar mosaic/satellite imagery indicate a
gradually deepening axis of convection located from near OJC
(Olathe, KS) south-southwestward to near CNU (Chanute, KS). These
storms were oriented along a pre-frontal trough migrating eastward
across the region. The storms were in an environment characterized
by weak instability (250-750 J/kg MUCAPE) but strong low-level and
deep shear, which should favor organization and some updraft
rotation as long as storms can deepen and mature. Continued
destabilization is expected owing to low-level warm advection amidst
40-45 kt southwesterly 850 hPa flow and cooling aloft associated
with an advancing mid-level wave over central Kansas. Should this
convection mature, CAMs indicate a primarily cellular convective
mode, which suggests a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a tornado.
The overall risk is mitigated by weak instability, however. This
should preclude a WW issuance although convective trends will be
monitored through the evening.
..Cook/Moore/Hart.. 03/09/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38189519 38709485 39069394 39129317 38789266 38059263
37209313 36809390 36679503 36879543 37459541 38189519
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1mXUBnL
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