MD 0163 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0163 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020 Areas affected...central and southeastern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma/southwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 110702Z - 110900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few stronger storms -- capable of producing marginally severe hail -- should continue to gradually evolve this morning within a broader area of convection, spreading east-southeastward with time across Kansas. DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows convection increasing in coverage across the central Kansas vicinity, with some increase in storm intensity also noted. This is occcurring as low-level moistening/warming is occurring above a surface-based stable layer, associated with a 60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet now noted per KVNX WSR-88D in northern Oklahoma. This warming is occurring beneath a layer of modest cooling as a mid-level vorticity lobe continues shifting east-southeastward out of Nebraska and into northern Kansas. The steepening of lapse rates as a result of these two processes is yielding the observed uptick in convective intensity, and this trend is expected to continue over the next few hours. With flow aloft veering to westerly aloft, shear sufficient to enhance storm intensification is present. At this time, it appears that a relatively deep, substantially stable boundary layer will preclude appreciable wind risk. Primary severe potential with the evolving storms will therefore likely remain hail in the 1 to 1.5" range. Watch probability -- while low at this time -- could increase later in the morning as storms spread into the Ozarks region. ..Goss/Edwards.. 03/11/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 38609953 38889943 38879807 38759776 38649704 38219553 37609408 36799447 36479517 36949603 38609953
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2EO1ecc
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