MD 0163 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA…SOUTHEAST KANSAS…THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF MISSOURI…AND THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0163 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2019 Areas affected...parts of eastern Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...the southwestern quarter of Missouri...and the northwest quarter of Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 090758Z - 090930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Risk for hail emanating from elevated storms will likely increase over the next 1-2 hours, possibly warranting WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a warm front from extending from east-central Oklahoma east-southeast across central/southern Arkansas. North of the front, a very stable boundary layer is indicated, with temperatures and dewpoints generally in the 40s. Water vapor imagery depicts the intense trough crossing the southern Rockies at this time, which is gradually acquiring negative tilt, and a broad zone of increasing ascent is also indicated downstream of the axis, west of -- and spreading into -- the discussion area. Model soundings across the region, and special 06Z ROABs, both indicate steep lapse rates above 850mb, atop the low-level stable air, with CAPE becoming increasingly sufficient for stout, elevated updrafts as additional moistening/theta-e advection aloft occurs in advance of the advancing trough. With flow aloft also increasing ahead of this feature, shear will support rotating updrafts where CAPE becomes sufficient for updraft longevity. Given these factors, risk for large hail should steadily increase over the next couple of hours -- possibly warranting WW issuance. ..Goss/Edwards.. 03/09/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 35039624 35209682 35979683 37719592 38309552 38559367 38269191 36219211 34899295 35039624
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2EO1ecc
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