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SPC MD 163

MD 0163 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA…SOUTHEAST KANSAS…THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF MISSOURI…AND THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF ARKANSAS

MD 0163 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0163
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2019

Areas affected...parts of eastern Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...the
southwestern quarter of Missouri...and the northwest quarter of
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 090758Z - 090930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Risk for hail emanating from elevated storms will likely
increase over the next 1-2 hours, possibly warranting WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a warm front from
extending from east-central Oklahoma east-southeast across
central/southern Arkansas.  North of the front, a very stable
boundary layer is indicated, with temperatures and dewpoints
generally in the 40s.

Water vapor imagery depicts the intense trough crossing the southern
Rockies at this time, which is gradually acquiring negative tilt,
and a broad zone of increasing ascent is also indicated downstream
of the axis, west of -- and spreading into -- the discussion area. 

Model soundings across the region, and special 06Z ROABs, both
indicate steep lapse rates above 850mb, atop the low-level stable
air, with CAPE becoming increasingly sufficient for stout, elevated
updrafts as additional moistening/theta-e advection aloft occurs in
advance of the advancing trough.  With flow aloft also increasing
ahead of this feature, shear will support rotating updrafts where
CAPE becomes sufficient for updraft longevity.  Given these factors,
risk for large hail should steadily increase over the next couple of
hours -- possibly warranting WW issuance.

..Goss/Edwards.. 03/09/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   35039624 35209682 35979683 37719592 38309552 38559367
            38269191 36219211 34899295 35039624 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2EO1ecc

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