MD 1638 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 479… FOR SRN NEB…NRN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1638
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 AM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB...NRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 479...
VALID 080614Z - 080745Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 479
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WILL CONTINUE NEAR
THE CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AREA THROUGH THE
07-10Z TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...PERIODIC STRONG SURFACE GUSTS
MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS TOWARD/SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. A NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...LIGHTNING AND RADAR DATA
INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF EASTWARD SURGING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...NOW APPROACHING THE
BEATRICE AREA. STRONGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW FOCUSED
ALONG THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE BACK TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST...GENERALLY NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AREA. THIS APPEARS NEAR THE NOSE OF A 40+ KT
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...IN A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...AND MOST FAVORABLE INFLOW OF MOIST...POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...FURTHER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND
INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR THE STATE BORDER
AREA...ROUGHLY NEAR AND WEST THROUGH EAST OF THE CONCORDIA AREA.
THIS COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO ANOTHER DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING AND
EASTWARD SURGING COLD POOL ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..KERR.. 08/08/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 40159912 40419824 40439718 40189592 39699532 39039638
39119791 39359940 40159912
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1IxLxPu
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