MD 1650 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1650 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Areas affected...Parts of northeastern east central Kansas into northwest and west central Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 310956Z - 311200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...It is not yet certain that a severe weather watch will be needed, but thunderstorms developing across the region could pose increasing potential for marginally severe hail and strong surface gusts through daybreak. DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent associated with a modest, veering (to an increasingly westerly component) pre-frontal low-level jet appears to be contributing to ongoing increasing convective development in a corridor across northeastern and east central Kansas. Although the Rapid Refresh suggests that this jet may begin to weaken shortly, lift appears to be increasingly focused within a weakness in inhibition associated with the warm elevated mixed-layer air, where the eastward advection of seasonably high moisture content is contributing to most unstable CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Given this destabilization, thunderstorm activity seems likely to continue to develop and intensify through daybreak. Although the region will remain between the belts of stronger westerlies aloft, veering profiles with height along this corridor may be contributing to deep-layer shear at least marginally sufficient for organized strong/severe convection. Furthermore, as a southeastward advancing cold front begins to overspread the region by 11-13Z, enhancement of lift, where it intersects this band of elevated convection, may contribute to an intensifying, upscale growing cluster of storms. This could be accompanied by increasing risk for strong surface gusts, in addition to occasional marginally severe hail. ..Kerr/Edwards.. 08/31/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 40339513 39539380 38649374 38089457 38389541 39519609 40039625 40339513
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/1J3rqhK
Be First to Comment