SPC MD 1654

MD 1654 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478…479… FOR SOUTHERN MO…FAR SOUTHERN IL AND FAR WESTERN KY

Mesoscale Discussion 1654
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

Areas affected...southern MO...far southern IL and far western KY

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478...479...

Valid 311743Z - 311915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478, 479
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong, locally damaging gusts will continue to be
possible across parts of central into southeast MO through
mid-afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A line of convection is currently tracking southeast at
around 40-45 kt across central MO into southern MO. If this storm
motion continues, convection could approach the edges of WW 478 and
479 in southeast MO around 19z. Recent CAPPI trends have shown some
weakening of cores over the last hour, and IR satellite indicates
modest warming of cloud tops. It is likely that convection has
reached peaked intensity. 0-6km shear is rather weak downstream,
though the airmass remains moderately unstable with MLCAPE values as
high as 2000 J/kg noted in 17z mesoanalysis. Furthermore,
approximately 50 kt of rear inflow has been measured by regional
radar. As a result, some severe potential could develop with
southeastward extent and move outside of the current severe
thunderstorm watches. The need for a downstream watch will be
evaluated.

Further west, convection has struggled to intensify as it develops
south/southeast into southwest MO. This is likely due to some
remaining inhibition from earlier morning convection/outflow.
Portions of WW 478 could be cancelled early if convective trends
continue to weaken across the region.

..Leitman.. 08/31/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36479283 36529393 36729430 37079448 37409447 37639427
            37929224 38069129 37999019 37758891 37658869 37368841
            36968834 36598856 36478911 36358977 36529123 36479283 

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