SPC MD 1684

MD 1684 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NERN KS THROUGH NWRN MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1684
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS THROUGH NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 140021Z - 140145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NERN KS AND NWRN MO WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF MAINLY HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH 02Z...FOLLOWED BY A DIMINISHING TREND.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH NRN MO
WWD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS CITY AREA WWD AND SWWD THROUGH ERN
KS. PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER NERN KS INTO NWRN MO IS CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED AND IS SURGING SWD. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR MOST STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SWD SURGING PORTION OF THE FRONT AND QUICKLY
BECOME UNDERCUT BY THIS BOUNDARY. ATMOSPHERE WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE
IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE INDICATED ON
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. VWP DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW AROUND 35 KT
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN SMALL DUE TO LACK OF A
LLJ. OVERALL SETUP APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW INSTANCES OF 1 INCH
HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WHILE A BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS STORMS INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY...TENDENCY FOR UPDRAFTS TO BECOME UNDERCUT AFTER INITIATION
AND SMALL 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS SHOULD MITIGATE OVERALL THREAT.

..DIAL/GUYER.. 09/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   38779368 38739470 38439558 38739612 39609523 39579380
            39209334 38779368 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2cuX8G1