SPC MD 1695

MD 1695 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495… FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL KANSAS

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Mesoscale Discussion 1695
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

Areas affected...southeast Nebraska into parts of northeast and
central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495...

Valid 062350Z - 070115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms over central Kansas will continue to track
east-northeast into the MCD area this evening. Hail and strong wind
gusts will be the main concern with these storms into tonight.

DISCUSSION...Radar trends over the last hour show a transition from
discrete supercell structures over western Kansas into clusters and
bowing line segments as storms track east across central Kansas.
This should result in a diminishing large hail threat into the
nighttime hours. MRMS MESH trends over the last hour seem to support
this notion as values have been decreasing even in semi-discrete
cells. Somewhat poorer lapse rates and instability across northeast
Kansas into southeast Nebraska also are likely contributing to a
downward trend in hail indicators. Regardless, the environment will
continue to support at least a marginal hail threat this evening. As
storms continue to grow upscale into a better organized line,
damaging winds will become the main concern with eastward extent.

..Leitman.. 10/06/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   40729503 37529705 37599890 40699733 40729626 40729503 

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