SPC MD 1708

MD 1708 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 499… FOR NORTHEAST OK…SOUTHEAST KS

MD 1708 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1708
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2017

Areas affected...Northeast OK...Southeast KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499...

Valid 092351Z - 100115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated hail will continue to be the primary threat with
storms this evening.

DISCUSSION...Scattered convection is beginning to mature along the
advancing wind shift over northeast OK with lightning now detected
with updrafts over Osage County. Frontal convection may gradually
increase across northeast OK over the next few hours but overall
intensity of this activity may struggle to produce more than
isolated large hail. Latest MRMS data at times exhibits hail
approaching 1" but mostly marginally severe. One reason may be that
large-scale forcing for ascent lags this region considerably. In
addition, the onset of boundary-layer cooling will result in
updrafts becoming increasingly elevated in nature. Even so, some
threat for isolated severe will continue for the next few hours.

..Darrow.. 10/09/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   35259672 38109726 38129487 35269441 35259672 

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