SPC MD 1710

MD 1710 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495… FOR PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN OK INTO CNTRL MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1710
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN OK INTO CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495...

VALID 182215Z - 182345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN KS INTO NORTHERN OK THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL AS WELL. AS STORMS TRACK
EASTWARD...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL MO...AND A NEW
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL OK INTO EASTERN
KS. WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES NEAR 35-45
KT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN MODEST AND THE BEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE
OVER OK WHERE STRONGER HEATING HAS OCCURRED. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
KS...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS STRONGER THAN FURTHER SOUTH AND STORM
MOTION FASTER.  ALL OF THIS COMBINED WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
DAMAGING-WIND THREAT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS MERGE AND POSSIBLY
DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS. SOME SEVERE
HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE LACKLUSTER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
THAT THREAT SEEMS SECONDARY TO THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. 

TO THE EAST OF WATCH 495 ACROSS CENTRAL MO...EARLIER CLOUD COVER HAS
HAS MOSTLY CLEARED. HOWEVER...SOME INHIBITION STILL EXISTS HERE
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE JUST NOW CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THOUGH HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG AND THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE AS STORMS
TRACK EASTWARD OUT OF WATCH 495. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

..LEITMAN/EDWARDS.. 08/18/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   39519543 40059421 40239292 40019218 39369168 38479199
            37849267 35339871 35249926 35409941 35819943 36639871
            38109715 39519543 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1K4CHgA