MD 1737 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 499… FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEB AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL IA TO NORTHERN KS/NORTHWEST MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST NEB AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL IA TO NORTHERN KS/NORTHWEST MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 499... VALID 222321Z - 230045Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 499 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE MAIN SUPERCELL-RELATED LARGE HAIL/TORNADO POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEB AND NEARBY NORTHEAST KS/FAR SOUTHWEST IA/FAR NORTHWEST MO THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIMITED HAIL/TORNADO RISK ELSEWHERE WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 499...WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z. DISCUSSION...AN EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO STEADILY MERGE WITH/OVERTAKE CONVECTION NEAR THE LINCOLN/OMAHA NEB AREAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL IA AS OF 6PM CDT/23Z. SOME DAMAGING WIND AND A LIMITED HAIL/TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST WITH THE LINEAR/CLUSTERED CONVECTION ACROSS IA...WHILE THE MAIN SUPERCELL-RELATED LARGE HAIL/SOME TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST WITH PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEB AND NEARBY NORTHEAST KS/FAR SOUTHWEST IA/FAR NORTHWEST MO...PRIOR TO THIS CONVECTION BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT. SPC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND CONTEMPORARY MODIFICATIONS TO AN EARLIER 18Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM OMAHA SUGGESTS THAT PRE-FRONTAL MLCAPE IS IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE FROM NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHWEST IA...WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WIND PROFILES FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS NEAR/POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH NEAR-FRONTAL FOCUSED/INCREASINGLY LINEAR CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY SCENARIO BY MID/LATE-EVENING. ..GUYER.. 08/22/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 39419865 40029845 40519710 42189505 41799303 40609397 39429473 38699615 39209781 39419865
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/XS3hEp
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