MD 1740 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 499… FOR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL IA AND NORTHWEST MO/PORTIONS OF KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1740
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0849 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL IA AND NORTHWEST
MO/PORTIONS OF KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 499...
VALID 230149Z - 230345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 499 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST NEB INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL IA...BUT SHOULD
PERSIST/POSSIBLY SPATIALLY INCREASE THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS/NEARBY NORTHWEST MO AND POSSIBLY OTHER PARTS OF CENTRAL
KS. TORNADO WATCH 499 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z. A NEW/REPLACEMENT WATCH
IS POSSIBLE /40 PERCENT/ LATER THIS EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS
OF EAST/CENTRAL KS AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MO.
DISCUSSION...THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO STABILIZE ACROSS
SOUTHERN IA/EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEB IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRIOR
CONVECTION/NOCTURNAL INFLUENCES AHEAD OF THE
EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...SOMEWHAT STRONGER
STORMS HAVE PERSISTED FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO FAR NORTHEAST KS
AS OF 830 PM CDT/130Z...WITH EARLIER SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/SUPERCELLS
HAVING BEEN OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT. CONSIDERABLE WARM-SECTOR
CAPPING/BOUNDARY-LAYER INHIBITION WAS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z OBSERVED
SOUNDING FROM TOPEKA. AS SUCH...DEEPER CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
DECIDEDLY FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION...AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR IS UNLIKELY. A
FRONT-RELATED LINEAR-TYPE CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD THUS REMAIN
PREVALENT...PARTICULARLY AS THE COLD FRONT ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. IN SPITE OF BACKED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTIVE MODE
WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADO RISK THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. EVEN SO...ISOLATED BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS IN THE SHORT-TERM...BUT
COULD POTENTIALLY EXPAND INTO ADDITIONAL PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MO LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A NEW /OR
REPLACEMENT/ WATCH IS POSSIBLE BY LATE EVENING.
..GUYER.. 08/23/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 41689470 41959356 41249298 38999443 37779625 38099840
39289891 39869665 40809553 41689470
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1PHYriS
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