MD 1750 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEB…EASTERN KS…AND NORTHEAST OK
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN NEB...EASTERN KS...AND NORTHEAST
OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 271036Z - 271300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS EASTERN NEB...EASTERN KS...AND PERHAPS INTO NORTHEAST OK
UNTIL ABOUT MID-MORNING /AROUND 15Z/. STRONGER/SUSTAINED STORMS
COULD PRODUCE A THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE HAIL STONES /AT OR GREATER
THAN 1 INCH IN DIAMETER/. OVERALL SPATIOTEMPORAL LIMITATIONS IN THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH.
DISCUSSION...DESPITE THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE LIFT ALOFT...THE
DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEB SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN
KS...AND ESPECIALLY CONCENTRATED /AT THIS TIME/ FROM FRANKLIN TO
ALLEN COUNTIES KS ARE BEING DRIVEN LARGELY BY LOW-LEVEL WAA.
ANALYSIS OF WSR-88D VADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INDICATED
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF NEB/KS HAVE VEERED TO WLY AND WSWLY
SINCE 06Z...WITH STRONG MASS CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN VICINITY OF A N-S ORIENTED
WARM FRONT AT 850 MB. OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED MUCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-50 KT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES PER 00Z AREA SOUNDINGS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL. INITIAL STORMS MAY HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL
AS EVENTUAL STORM MERGERS/CLUSTERING MAY TEND TO REDUCE THE LARGER
HAIL PRODUCTION. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED SEVERE-HAIL
COVERAGE AND A RELATIVELY SHORTER TEMPORAL EXTENT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT WARRANTED. THE LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER TO WLY THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AN
EXPECTED EARLY DAY DECREASE IN SPEED. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DIMINISHING TREND IN STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BY AROUND 15Z...AS THE
PRIMARY SOURCE OF LIFT WEAKENS.
..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 08/27/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 41809783 41879679 41109628 40109582 39159524 38269489
37249486 36739502 36519581 36619626 37099657 37969668
38769688 39959723 40999772 41809783
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1KmzZDk
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