MD 1753 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 501… FOR CNTRL/ERN NEB
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 501... VALID 280058Z - 280230Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 501 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...INITIAL SUPERCELLS OVER CNTRL NEB ARE WEAKENING AS A BROADENING/SLOW-MOVING TSTM CLUSTER DEVELOPS EWD THROUGH E-CNTRL/NERN NEB. RISKS FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND A BRIEF TORNADO REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT OVERALL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS RIGHT-MOVER OF A PAIR OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR NEAR THE CUSTER/DAWSON/BUFFALO COUNTY BORDERS. THIS STORM HAS LIKELY INGESTED AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR MASS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY COOLED 6-12 DEG F FROM PEAK HEATING OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND 00Z TOP/OAX RAOBS SAMPLED SUBSTANTIAL MLCIN. FARTHER N...REMNANT LEFT-MOVER AND ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TYPE DEVELOPMENT IN A W/E-ORIENTED BAND SHOULD PERSIST INTO LATE EVENING AMID A LLJ STRENGTHENING AOA 50 KT. THE UEX VWP SAMPLED A QUITE ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS JET. BUT GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY POOR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...OVERALL SEVERE RISK HAS PROBABLY PEAKED AND MAY REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED/MARGINAL THE REST OF THIS EVENING. ..GRAMS.. 08/28/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 42369788 42509870 41789966 41349971 40889941 40709844 40959674 41179661 41629671 41859703 42369788
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1U9t3j3
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