MD 1760 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS…CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA…AND FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1760 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0840 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Areas affected...Northwest Texas...central and western Oklahoma...and far southern Kansas Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 271340Z - 271745Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain and sleet will continue from central Oklahoma into the eastern Texas Panhandle through the remainder of the morning. DISCUSSION...Recent mPING reports from central OK and northwest Texas indicate that freezing rain with embedded pockets of sleet continue to overspread the region. The recent 12 UTC Norman, OK sounding reveals a 7-8 C warm nose between 800-700 mb on top of a ~1 km deep sub-freezing level (with a minimum temperature near -6 C). This thermodynamic profile supports the observed precipitation trends, and with little change expected in the next few hours, should continue to favor freezing rain with embedded sleet. The strong 850-700 mb isentropic ascent that is the primary forcing of this morning's precipitation is expected to persist into the early afternoon hours, especially across central OK per recent guidance. This will also act to reinforce the warm nose aloft and continue to support freezing rain. Although models do show a signal for surface temperatures to warm just above freezing by around 18 UTC for central OK, there is some uncertainty in the temperature forecast given widespread cloud cover, persistent northerly winds/weak cold advection at the surface, and only modest warm advection at around 925 mb. As such, confidence in ice accumulations will remain highest along and west of the I-44 corridor where precipitation along the mid-level warm front is most likely to overlap with sub-freezing surface temperatures through the early afternoon. Due to the early timing of this winter storm, fall foliage remains on most trees, which when combined with ice accumulation and 10-15 mph surface winds will increase the potential for widespread power outages through the day. ..Moore.. 10/27/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 35860061 36839954 37339883 37819762 37999674 37679610 37019568 36269616 35329695 34959710 34199742 33699837 33339891 33309939 33510018 33840067 34530084 35370079 35860061
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