MD 1773 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 493… FOR ERN KS THROUGH WRN MO AND SWRN IA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1773
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS THROUGH WRN MO AND SWRN IA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 493...
VALID 070042Z - 070215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 493 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS ERN KS THROUGH WRN MO HAS
TRANSITIONED TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...BUT A QLCS TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TORNADO WATCH 493 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
02Z. DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS REGION.
DISCUSSION...STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH ERN KS
INTO WRN MO ALONG COLD FRONT AND WITHIN ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL WARM
ADVECTION. OTHER STORMS OVER SERN KS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THEY SHIFT EWD INTO SWRN MO. CONVECTIVE MODE HAS
TRANSITIONED TO MOSTLY LINEAR WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS...BUT INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF WCNTRL
THROUGH NWRN MO TO THE NORTH OF A LARGE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
RELATIVELY STABLE...AND RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERTURN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THIS
SUGGESTS NRN PORTION OF THE LINE WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NERN KS AND NWRN MO. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ACROSS SERN KS WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE
UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
..DIAL.. 10/07/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37089735 38269600 39529538 41109467 41459362 40919321
39389403 38439436 37459499 37079612 37089735
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2d7dBU5
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