MD 1804 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511… FOR FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA…EASTERN MARYLAND…DELAWARE…NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1804 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020 Areas affected...far eastern Pennsylvania...eastern Maryland...Delaware...New Jersey Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511... Valid 152352Z - 160145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging gusts continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 0511. Damaging gusts will be primarily associated with a line of storms. DISCUSSION...A low-topped squall line is currently moving across eastern PA and northeast MD, with a history of at least scattered wind damage from Cumberland to Lebanon and Lancaster Counties in PA, down to Frederick County MD. Storm tops barely reach 25 kft, and the anticipated line is expected to continue in an ambient thermodynamic environment characterized by surface temperatures exceeding 60F and very marginal buoyancy (with the latest RAP forecast soundings showing 100-150 J/kg MUCAPE, mainly within the 850-600 mb layer). Despite the weak, elevated instability, very strong forcing for ascent and intense low-level wind fields suggest that any downward momentum transport would support damaging gusts with the more mature segments of the squall. The damaging wind threat is expected to continue until the squall moves offshore, which will likely be within the next 2.5-3.5 hours. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 11/15/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 38617500 38537632 38687733 38917813 39707706 40667612 41397569 41487488 41367427 40987403 40507387 39787390 39397419 38937458 38617500
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2H55Q2P
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