MD 1806 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512… FOR PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK…CONNECTICUT…MASSACHUSETTS…RHODE ISLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1806 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020 Areas affected...Portions of Long Island New York...Connecticut...Massachusetts...Rhode Island Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512... Valid 160237Z - 160430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 0512. Damaging gusts are expected to accompany a fast-moving squall line to the Atlantic coastline. DISCUSSION...A progressive squall line, with 18 dBZ echo tops occasionally exceeding 25 kft, continues to pose a damaging wind threat across portions of southern New England. Numerous damaging/measured severe gusts have been noted farther west across southeast New York into New Jersey over the past couple of hours. Strong low-level Warm air advection continues ahead of the squall, fostering up to 250 J/kg MUCAPE (mainly within the 850-500 mb layer), as shown by the latest Mesoanalysis and RAP forecast soundings. Though buoyancy is mediocre, 50+ kt 925-850 mb wind fields are in place, and any downward momentum transport that occurs with the more pronounced downdrafts will support damaging gusts. The squall is expected to maintain intensity while on land, and is expected to move out into the Atlantic over the next 2-3 hours. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 11/16/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 40457391 41437333 42277328 42777309 42847214 42867121 42807071 42487036 41986994 41677008 41337048 40747197 40457391
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