MD 1874 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 1874
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2020
Areas affected...Central/eastern FL Panhandle and southwest GA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 241811Z - 241945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging winds and a brief tornado
will exist along a pre-frontal QLCS that should progress east from
the central to the eastern FL Panhandle and southwest GA. The
magnitude of these threats are expected to be small enough to
preclude a weather watch issuance in the near-term, but
observational trends will continue to be monitored.
DISCUSSION...The northern portion of a short QLCS depicted some
organized structure in radar reflectively as it moved onshore in
Gulf County, FL with overshooting CB tops in 1-min visible satellite
imagery, before waning farther inland. The KTLH VWP continues to
sample 50-60 kt southwesterlies through the 1-3 km AGL layer.
However, the boundary layer has struggled to warm greatly in this
portion of the Panhandle and southwest GA with surface temperatures
holding from 65-70 F. This suggests strong gusts capable of
localized tree damage should be the primary hazard with the line.
Convection just east of the Tallahassee area has shown broad and
weak low-level rotation at times. This activity remains on the
leading edge of surface-based buoyancy, which will likely limit
potential for more sustained supercell development. The overall
tornado threat may remain low this afternoon.
..Grams/Guyer.. 12/24/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 30478480 30778456 31018433 31068418 31268400 31248319
30918293 30278319 29998338 29848395 29688476 29688515
30478480
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