MD 1883 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF KS AND FAR NORTHWESTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1883 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Tue Dec 29 2020 Areas affected...Much of KS and far northwestern OK Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 291000Z - 291600Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain should occur this morning before gradually turning to rain from south to north. Freezing rain rates may exceed 0.05 inch per 3 hours. Some snow/sleet may also mix with the freezing rain, mainly across parts of northern Kansas. DISCUSSION...A 40-50+ kt southerly low-level jet will continue to transport moisture northward across the southern/central Plains this morning. Strong forcing for ascent associated with this low-level jet has encouraged the development of scattered to numerous showers across northern OK and much of central/eastern KS. An initially dry sub-cloud layer across these areas is gradually becoming saturated as precipitation continues. Evaporative cooling to the surface wet bulb temperature should result in a period of freezing rain for at least a few hours this morning across far northwestern OK and much of KS, where surface air temperatures are or will soon fall below freezing. The light to moderate and showery precipitation should support freezing rain rates around 0.05 inch per 3 hours, with locally higher rates possible with convection that may produce isolated lightning flashes with very weak elevated instability. Still, ice accretion may remain limited to elevated surfaces for most locations due to the marginal surface temperatures. The best potential for ice accretion appears to be across parts of north-central into northeastern KS, where surface temperatures should generally remain below freezing this morning. Continued robust low-level warm advection is expected to gradually erode the near-surface sub-freezing layer from south to north across this region through the morning, as surface winds veer from easterly to southeasterly. Accordingly, a transition from freezing rain to rain should occur across far northwestern OK and parts of southern/central KS by 16Z (10 AM CST). A mix of freezing rain, sleet, and/or snow also appears possible across mainly northern KS, where the low-level warm nose will not be as pronounced compared to locations farther south. ..Gleason.. 12/29/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 37899794 37419871 36699916 36439964 36670051 37430083 38250072 39129999 39889814 39959681 39879573 39489508 38759494 38309587 38109708 37899794
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