MD 1884 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHEAST KS…EASTERN NE…SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL IA…NORTHERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1884 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Tue Dec 29 2020 Areas affected...Northeast KS...Eastern NE...Southwest/central IA...Northern MO Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 291602Z - 292100Z SUMMARY...Moderate to occasionally heavy winter precipitation will continue into this afternoon. The snow/freezing rain and freezing rain/rain lines should gradually shift northward with time, with some sleet possible within the snow/freezing rain transition zone. DISCUSSION...At 16Z, a broad plume of winter precipitation is ongoing from central KS into portions of IA/NE and northern MO, with embedded convective elements noted across KS and moving into southeast NE/southwest IA/northwest MO. This precipitation will be sustained into this afternoon, as strong low-level warm advection maintains ascent in advance of a complex mid/upper-level trough moving into the central/northern Plains. The warm advection will also result in a northward transition of the snow/freezing rain and freezing rain/rain lines with time. Some sleet will be possible within the snow/freezing rain transition zone, though surface observations and forecast soundings indicate that freezing rain and snow will remain the predominant precip types for at least the remainder of the morning. While widespread and occasionally moderate/heavy, precipitation has thus far been somewhat disorganized, with heavier rates being relatively transient at any given location. However, heavier precipitation over KS is expected to spread northeastward at a faster rate than the precip type transition zones, resulting in more widespread snow rates of 1+ inch per hour across far eastern NE into western/central IA by early afternoon, and freezing rain rates of 0.05+ inches/hour from southeast NE/far northeast KS into northern MO. Increasing frontogenesis within the 900-700 mb layer will support the potential for more organized banding and even greater snowfall rates by mid afternoon, primarily across portions of southern/central IA. ..Dean.. 12/29/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 41009151 40089230 39149383 38629549 39019681 39389772 40649732 41559684 42059483 42249371 42239259 41909176 41009151
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/3rANlpl
Be First to Comment