SPC MD 1884

MD 1884 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHEAST KS…EASTERN NE…SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL IA…NORTHERN MO

MD 1884 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1884
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1002 AM CST Tue Dec 29 2020

Areas affected...Northeast KS...Eastern NE...Southwest/central
IA...Northern MO

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 291602Z - 292100Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to occasionally heavy winter precipitation will
continue into this afternoon. The snow/freezing rain and freezing
rain/rain lines should gradually shift northward with time, with
some sleet possible within the snow/freezing rain transition zone.

DISCUSSION...At 16Z, a broad plume of winter precipitation is
ongoing from central KS into portions of IA/NE and northern MO, with
embedded convective elements noted across KS and moving into
southeast NE/southwest IA/northwest MO. This precipitation will be
sustained into this afternoon, as strong low-level warm advection
maintains ascent in advance of a complex mid/upper-level trough
moving into the central/northern Plains. The warm advection will
also result in a northward transition of the snow/freezing rain and
freezing rain/rain lines with time. Some sleet will be possible
within the snow/freezing rain transition zone, though surface
observations and forecast soundings indicate that freezing rain and
snow will remain the predominant precip types for at least the
remainder of the morning. 

While widespread and occasionally moderate/heavy, precipitation has
thus far been somewhat disorganized, with heavier rates being
relatively transient at any given location. However, heavier
precipitation over KS is expected to spread northeastward at a
faster rate than the precip type transition zones, resulting in more
widespread snow rates of 1+ inch per hour across far eastern NE into
western/central IA by early afternoon, and freezing rain rates of
0.05+ inches/hour from southeast NE/far northeast KS into northern
MO. Increasing frontogenesis within the 900-700 mb layer will
support the potential for more organized banding and even greater
snowfall rates by mid afternoon, primarily across portions of
southern/central IA.

..Dean.. 12/29/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   41009151 40089230 39149383 38629549 39019681 39389772
            40649732 41559684 42059483 42249371 42239259 41909176
            41009151 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/3rANlpl

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