MD 1896 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1896 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020 Areas affected...far eastern South Carolina into southern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 312026Z - 312230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Recent convective development in eastern South Carolina may pose an isolated wind/tornado risk this afternoon. A WW issuance is not anticipated due to the isolated nature of the threat. DISCUSSION...A small cluster of lightning-producing convection has evolved near Horry County, SC over the past hour or so, with modest but increasing organization noted on local radar. The increase in intensity is likely aided by an advancing, low-amplitude mid-level wave evident on water vapor imagery and objective analysis. The storms are in a marginally unstable environment (with over 500 J/kg MUCAPE in the pre-storm environment). However, the presence of strong updrafts (and nearly 40kft echo tops) suggests that the storms may be taking advantage of the 40-50 kts of environmental deep shear, fostering organization. Additionally, the presence of 150-200 m2/s2 0-3km SRH may foster rotation in a few of the storms, enhancing any localized risk of a damaging wind gust or perhaps a tornado. The overall risk should be localized and isolated given the marginal nature of the instability, however, precluding the need for a WW. ..Cook/Grams.. 12/31/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34407946 34787873 34977786 34947720 34617697 33757764 33297857 33267927 33777969 34177955 34407946
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/3o3upgR
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