MD 1993 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN KS…SOUTH-CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEB…AND WESTERN IA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1993 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN KS...SOUTH-CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEB...AND WESTERN IA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 261304Z - 261800Z SUMMARY...WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING. THE WESTERN KS PORTION OF THIS REGION SHOULD HAVE A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WITH FREEZING RAIN THE INITIAL PRECIP TYPE THROUGH AT LEAST 15-16Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN. THE REST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM NORTH-CENTRAL KS TO EAST-CENTRAL NEB WILL HAVE RAIN TRANSITIONING TO A MIXTURE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...OR JUST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS FREEZING RAIN/SLEET BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPES...WITH FREEZING RAIN RATES UP TO 0.05-0.10 IN/HR POSSIBLE...AS SUPPORTED BY 00Z SSEO GUIDANCE. DISCUSSION...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD BE LOCATED WITHIN A CORRIDOR /65-75 MILES WIDE/...EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS /WICHITA TO FORD COUNTIES/ TO EAST-CENTRAL NEB AND A PORTION OF WESTERN IA. AT 12Z...THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS CORRIDOR WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75-100 MILES N/NW OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS ADVANCING TO THE SOUTH AND EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST IA THROUGH EXTREME NORTHWEST MO TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...NORTHWEST OK AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE TX PANHANDLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO OR BELOW 32 F ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH A SIMILAR TREND EXPECTED IN EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA THIS MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TX/OK TO EASTERN KS AND SOUTHERN IA WILL MAINTAIN A POLEWARD FLUX OF MOISTURE INTO AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY. A MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND IMPULSE...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KS PER WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING STRIKES EARLIER OVER NORTHEAST NM TO THE CO BORDER... WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH KS AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEB THIS MORNING. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS NORTHEASTWARD- MOVING MIDLEVEL FEATURE COMBINED WITH 1/ MOISTURE RETURN AND 2/ ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND PERIODIC HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES. LOW-LEVEL WAA IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST FROM NORTH-CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN NEB RESULTING IN A STRONGER WARM NOSE ATOP SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 32 F...SUCH THAT THE VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE COULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE GREATER IN WESTERN KS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHWEST KS IMPULSE SUPPORTING A TRANSITION TO SLEET AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE LATER THIS MORNING. ..PETERS.. 11/26/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 41699701 42409575 42539498 41919479 41199579 39979741 39259845 38669902 38159923 37799996 37890071 38020103 38260130 38700149 39220126 39740048 40019984 40349931 40589905 41699701
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1HpEOfW
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