MD 2000 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PART OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2000
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0413 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST KS
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 291013Z - 291515Z
SUMMARY...PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOME IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING /PRE-DAWN/ UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST KS. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL TEND TO RANGE FROM 0.05-0.10
INCH PER 3 HOURS.
DISCUSSION...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
30-32 F AND WET BULB TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 32 F EXTENDED 15 MILES
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM KINGMAN TO JACKSON COUNTIES KS. 06Z
GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THIS MORNING FROM EAST-WEST ACROSS EASTERN
KS...WITH THIS WARMING ALREADY OCCURRING PER TRENDS IN OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES. BY 15Z...THE WET BULB ZERO LINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM HARPER
AND SEDGWICK TO WABAUNSEE COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...AS INDICATED BY 00Z
4-KM WRF NSSL AND NMM...RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND SREF...MOSAIC
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED REFLECTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FROM NORTHWEST OK INTO ADJACENT SOUTH-CENTRAL KS /AROUND
KP28/. THE WESTERN HALF OF THIS REGION WILL HAVE FREEZING RAIN AS
THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
SUB-FREEZING...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF WILL GRADUALLY BECOME RAIN AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THIS NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST KS THROUGH 15Z.
..PETERS.. 11/29/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...
LAT...LON 37679850 38309786 39249684 39529644 39679592 39559564
38589631 38109690 37909731 37409800 37379851 37679850
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1Irtivi
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