MD 0205 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0205 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Areas affected...south-central Nebraska and far northern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191901Z - 192100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Convection is intensifying near a frontal boundary across the region. Large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary threat. A WW is not anticipated, however, given the isolated nature of the threat. DISCUSSION...Cooling aloft associated with an advancing vort max across east-west-central Kansas and sustained surface heating was contributing to deepening, lightning-producing convection near a surface boundary extending from near GLD to HSI. These storms are in an environment characterized by modest instability (250-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and appreciable deep shear (35-40 kts), with storm motion vectors largely perpendicular to the initiating surface bounday. This should result in a tendency for most convection to be undercut, though 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates may support isolated instances of large hail in the strongest cells. Any threat for surface wind gusts or updraft rotation may occur if storms interact favorably with the initiating boundary, though this potential appears to be quite low at this time. These storms should continue to spread north-northeast with time, with the already limited severe risk persisting through the next few hours. Given the isolated nature of the threat, a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Cook/Dial.. 03/19/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 40789851 40799842 40839762 40629734 40359739 40089763 40029768 39669925 39120137 39150183 39340208 39700200 39980145 40030107 40110093 40489969 40789851
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/3bgypDX
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