MD 0206 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA…NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI…NORTHEASTERN KANSAS…AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0206 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Areas affected...southwestern Iowa...northwestern Missouri...northeastern Kansas...and southeastern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 191941Z - 192215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Upstream destabilization and convective activity should result in an increasing severe risk - especially after about 4pm local time or so in Kansas/Nebraska portions of the discussion area. A WW is being considered. DISCUSSION...The airmass across the discussion area has destabilized and recovered from morning precipitation owing to 30-40 kt 850 flow and cooling aloft associated with an approaching, vigorous trough across west-central Kansas. Meanwhile, a few thunderstorms have developed very near a slow-moving surface boundary across Saline/Fillmore counties in Nebraska. Hail is possible with these storms, although cross-boundary storm motions suggest that this convection will likely become elevated atop the front soon. Models/CAMs and observations suggest that open-warm-sector initiation will commence - most likely after around 4pm local time. Though low-level flow is somewhat veered, strong vertical shear throughout the troposphere and long hodographs (resulting from strong mid- and upper-level flow) will result in a few quickly moving supercells capable of all modes of severe weather. Significant hail is possible owing to 7-7.5 C/km lapse rates and potentially favorable (cellular) mode, while a few tornadoes may also develop given low-level shear values (150-200m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). This threat will likely persist through the evening hours. ..Cook/Dial.. 03/19/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 40829770 41219693 41509534 41629407 41539270 41119196 40369187 39749211 39389299 39329417 38889547 39269697 39429762 40079791 40829770
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/33xYfk3
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