MD 0209 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 57… FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA…PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA…NORTHWEST MISSOURI…NORTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0209 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0543 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...parts of southern Iowa...northwest Missouri...northeast Kansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 57... Valid 192243Z - 200045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 57 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat is expected to continue across Tornado watch 0057 for at least the next few hours. Large hail will be the primary threat with most of these storms. The best tornado potential will be confined to the warm side of a baroclinic zone across southwest IA. Additional storms are developing across northeast Kansas and may pose some severe risk should they intensify. DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete transient supercells have been in progress across southeast NE into southwest IA over the past few hours, with a history of severe hail. Adequate instability (1000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and ample deep-layer shear (60+ knot effective bulk shear) remains in place across southeast NE into south-central IA, suggesting that severe potential should continue into the evening hours. Many of the storms have crossed over or have been undercut by a baroclinic boundary draped across far southeast NE into southwest IA. These storms will likely remain elevated and produce mainly severe hail. Any storm that can become surface based and mature previous to crossing the boundary may produce a tornado given the adequate streamwise vorticity in place. Deep-layer ascent should continue to overspread the Upper-Mississippi Valley with the approach of both the surface low and a well-defined mid-level vort max through the evening, potentially promoting the development of new storms. Storms have recently initiated across parts of northeast Kansas and these too may become severe as they move closer to the aforementioned boundary, where stronger deep-layer ascent is present. This new development will continue to be monitored over the next few hours. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 03/19/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 39089695 40249737 41079728 41429618 41669508 41769376 41739296 41679258 41539227 41239221 40399298 39219592 39089695
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2QxkfpR
Be First to Comment