MD 0241 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST KS…SOUTHWEST INTO EAST-CENTRAL MO…FAR WESTERN IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0241
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0833 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020
Areas affected...Southeast KS...southwest into east-central MO...far
western IL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 280133Z - 280300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Some intensification of ongoing convection is possible
this evening. The area will continue to be monitored for possible
watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...At 0130Z, elevated convection is gradually intensifying
from southeast KS into central MO. This is likely in response to an
increasing low-level jet noted on recent VWPs from SGF/INX.
Relatively steep lapse rates noted on upstream 00Z soundings across
the central/southern Plains will continue to support moderate
elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) through the night,
while increasing midlevel flow will maintain effective shear of
40-60 kt for updrafts that become rooted below around 800 mb.
Uncertainty remains regarding the depth and organization of ongoing
convection, but any organized structures that evolve will have the
potential to produce large hail and perhaps locally gusty winds.
This area will continue to be monitored for possible watch issuance,
should an uptick in storm organization occur.
..Dean/Grams.. 03/28/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38329524 38709477 39319342 39919131 39459074 38859013
37859302 37089436 37109530 38329524
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2wJk2sT
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