MD 0243 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NE…SOUTHERN IA…FAR NORTHWEST IL…FAR NORTHERN MO…EXTREME NORTHEAST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0243 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Areas affected...Far Southeast NE...Southern IA...Far Northwest IL...Far Northern MO...Extreme Northeast KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 280634Z - 280730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail is possible from far southeast NE/northeast KS across southern IL/northern MO into northwest IL over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm intensity and coverage has increased over the past hour or so from far southeast NE/northeast KS northeastward across southern IA/northern MO into northwest IL. This increase appears to be coincident with a modest increase in the low-level jet and resultant increase in warm-air advection. Environment across much of this region is characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates atop a stable boundary layer and strong deep-layer shear. The ongoing warm-air advection is expected to persist while gradually shifting northeastward. This continued lift will likely promote the development of additional thunderstorms while the strong vertical shear will support storm organization. Instability is modest but a few storms could be strong enough to produce severe hail. Current expectation is for the limited instability to temper severe storm coverage enough to preclude watch issuance. However, convective trends will be monitored closely and watch probability could increase if the number of organized storms becomes greater. ..Mosier/Edwards.. 03/28/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 40459678 41499446 42449025 41598947 40909133 39769607 40459678
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2wLU9J9
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