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SPC MD 243

MD 0243 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NE…SOUTHERN IA…FAR NORTHWEST IL…FAR NORTHERN MO…EXTREME NORTHEAST KS

MD 0243 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0243
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Areas affected...Far Southeast NE...Southern IA...Far Northwest
IL...Far Northern MO...Extreme Northeast KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 280634Z - 280730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail is possible from far southeast
NE/northeast KS across southern IL/northern MO into northwest IL
over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm intensity and coverage has increased over
the past hour or so from far southeast NE/northeast KS northeastward
across southern IA/northern MO into northwest IL. This increase
appears to be coincident with a modest increase in the low-level jet
and resultant increase in warm-air advection. Environment across
much of this region is characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates
atop a stable boundary layer and strong deep-layer shear.

The ongoing warm-air advection is expected to persist while
gradually shifting northeastward. This continued lift will likely
promote the development of additional thunderstorms while the strong
vertical shear will support storm organization. Instability is
modest but a few storms could be strong enough to produce severe
hail. Current expectation is for the limited instability to temper
severe storm coverage enough to preclude watch issuance. However,
convective trends will be monitored closely and watch probability
could increase if the number of organized storms becomes greater.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 03/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   40459678 41499446 42449025 41598947 40909133 39769607
            40459678 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2wLU9J9

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