MD 0244 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0244 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019 Areas affected...Parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281252Z - 281445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms, some strong, are expected to increase while spreading across the region through midday, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail. DISCUSSION...A focused area of strengthening large-scale upward vertical motion, supported by lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, has contributed to the initiation of vigorous ongoing thunderstorm development near the central Kansas/Nebraska border area. Model output suggests that this likely will persist and increase, gradually spreading eastward and southeastward across the state border area through midday. Although moisture content remains somewhat modest across this region, fairly steep mid-level lapse rates associated with elevated mixed-layer air appear to be contributing to most unstable CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. Furthermore, vertical shear through the convective layer appears moderate to strong, though winds in the inflow layer may be modest to weak. Given this regime, vigorous thunderstorm activity appears likely to persist, and gradually organize, with stronger embedded cells perhaps occasionally becoming capable of producing marginally severe hail. With convection based above a substantive stable layer from the surface through around 850 mb, the potential for damaging wind gusts appears low through at least early afternoon. ..Kerr/Edwards.. 03/28/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...GLD... LAT...LON 40559916 40649705 40359606 39029621 38919715 39089823 39879985 40559916
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1Jqa36N
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