SPC MD 244

MD 0244 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS

MD 0244 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0244
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

Areas affected...Parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 281252Z - 281445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms, some strong, are expected to increase while
spreading across the region through midday, accompanied by at least
some risk for severe hail.

DISCUSSION...A focused area of strengthening large-scale upward
vertical motion, supported by lower/mid tropospheric warm advection,
has contributed to the initiation of vigorous ongoing thunderstorm
development near the central Kansas/Nebraska border area.  Model
output suggests that this likely will persist and increase,
gradually spreading eastward and southeastward across the state
border area through midday.

Although moisture content remains somewhat modest across this
region, fairly steep mid-level lapse rates associated with elevated
mixed-layer air appear to be contributing to most unstable CAPE on
the order of 1000-2000 J/kg.  Furthermore, vertical shear through
the convective layer appears moderate to strong, though winds in the
inflow layer may be modest to weak. 

Given this regime, vigorous thunderstorm activity appears likely to
persist, and gradually organize, with stronger embedded cells
perhaps occasionally becoming capable of producing marginally severe
hail.  With convection based above a substantive stable layer from
the surface through around 850 mb, the potential for damaging wind
gusts appears low through at least early afternoon.

..Kerr/Edwards.. 03/28/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...GLD...

LAT...LON   40559916 40649705 40359606 39029621 38919715 39089823
            39879985 40559916 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1Jqa36N

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