SPC MD 245

MD 0245 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST OK…FAR SOUTHEAST KS…SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MO

Mesoscale Discussion 0245
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Areas affected...Northeast OK...Far Southeast KS...Southwest/Central
MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 281205Z - 281330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Near-severe wind gusts are possible across far southeast
KS, southwest/central MO, and northeast OK over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low near HUT in
central KS, with a stationary front extending northeastward from
this low to another low over central IL. A Pacific front also
extends from the central KS low southward across central OK. A
cluster of thunderstorms which initially developed along this front
has moved quickly eastward and is now located over northeast OK and
southeast KS. Despite a fast storm motion (i.e. around 55-60 kt),
most gusts associated with this cluster have remained around 35-40
kt. This is a result of the boundary-layer stability that was in
place. 

The boundary-layer stability is expected to remain in place
downstream across southwest/central MO (as evidenced by the 12Z SGF
sounding). As such, the trend for generally 35-45 kt gusts is
expected to continue. There may be a small area, likely west-central
MO, where an increased likelihood for a few stronger gusts develops
as a result of slightly weaker MLCIN and enhanced updraft/downdraft
circulations due to interaction with the stationary frontal zone.
Mesoscale nature of that interaction leads to relatively low
short-term forecast confidence. Anticipated limited spatial extent
of the severe threat will likely preclude watch issuance. Even so,
convective trends will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 03/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   36469581 37749568 38749424 39149219 37459184 36469345
            36469581 

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