MD 0246 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA…SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS…SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI…AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0246 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0839 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019 Areas affected...Central/northeastern Oklahoma...southeastern Kansas...southwestern Missouri...and far northwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 291339Z - 291515Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Occasional instances of 1+ inch hailstones are possible with stronger thunderstorms over the next couple of hours. A WW issuance is not anticipated at this time. DISCUSSION...Elevated convection persists along an axis from near CQB to near TUL and BVO - and is more widespread than operational models depict. Though forcing for ascent aloft is negligible, mid-level instability (8.5-9 deg C/km) noted on 12Z soundings and subtle speed convergence at the base of this unstable layer (800-850 mb) is likely forcing ongoing convection along the eastern edge of the strongest lapse rates. Though effective shear is marginal, the magnitude of lapse rates will continue to support a hail risk with the strongest storms, with 1" or greater hail stones possible for the next couple of hours. Over time, flow at 800-850mb is expected to weaken and back to a more south-southwesterly direction in response to cyclogenesis over central Kansas. This will likely lead to a weakening of ongoing convection as convergence near the base of the lapse rate plume weakens. Thus, the isolated nature of the severe threat with ongoing convection and expected weakening of this activity precludes any need for a WW issuance. ..Cook.. 03/29/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 37829623 38029570 38179474 38069404 37609369 36629375 35849424 35359490 35119592 35029678 35069726 35279751 35729736 36319710 36859705 37249691 37449670 37829623
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1oooSQw
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