SPC MD 248


MD 0248 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0248
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

Areas affected...Parts of OK into far southeastern KS...southwestern
MO...and northwestern AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 300430Z - 300700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail may occur overnight as thunderstorms
increase in coverage and intensity. While not immediately likely,
severe thunderstorm watch issuance may be needed by 1-2 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...04Z surface analysis shows a 1008 mb low centered along
the KS/MO border near Pittsburg, KS. A cold front extends
southwestward from this low across central/western OK into the TX
Panhandle, while a warm front is located over parts of southwestern
MO. A shortwave trough over the central High Plains will shift
eastward overnight. At least scattered thunderstorms appear likely
to develop by 06-07Z (1-2 AM CDT) as large-scale ascent associated
with the shortwave trough overspreads much of OK and vicinity.

Initial convective development appears to be underway across the
eastern TX Panhandle and northwestern OK at 0420Z with cooling of
cloud tops noted on infrared satellite imagery. These thunderstorms
will likely remain elevated above a stable near-surface layer as
they move eastward across OK and eventually southwestern
MO/northwestern AR overnight. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 7.5 to
8.5 C/km present on 00Z area soundings are supporting MUCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg across much of OK. Around 40-50 kt of effective bulk
shear in the cloud-bearing layer should initially support supercells
with an isolated large hail threat.

Convective mode becomes less clear with eastward extent across OK,
as storms may have a tendency to organize into one or more line
segments as they interact with the cold front. Gusty winds may also
occur, but downdrafts will probably struggle to reach the surface
given the strong low-level inversion. Convective trends will be
monitored over the next several hours for possible watch issuance.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 03/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   34629951 34859985 35279994 36949645 37189543 37469415
            37279334 36479335 36079357 35459445 35099541 34889619
            34699701 34559808 34509881 34629951 

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