SPC MD 261

MD 0261 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TX SOUTH PLAINS VICINITY

MD 0261 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0261
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2019

Areas affected...TX South Plains vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 060641Z - 060815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may briefly intensify at times through early
morning, possibly producing marginally severe hail and strong wind
gusts. A watch is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Isolated strong to briefly severe stroms will continue
the next several hours across the TX South Plains/western north TX
vicinity. Current cells/bowing segments affecting Kent, Stonewall
and King counties in TX have shown periodic intensification over the
last hour or so. Brief pulses in MRMS MESH data suggesting hail size
up to around 1-1.5 inches possible, though most recent trends have
decreased. Furthermore, velocity data from KLBB has shown moderate
midlevel rotation at times, further supporting hail potential, and
possibly a strong to severe gust where  boundary layer inhibition
may be weak and/or downdrafts briefly intense. 

This band of strong convection was occurring ahead of a shortwave
impulse ejecting across southwest TX currently and on the nose of
stronger southeasterly return flow. Surface dewpoints are maximized
in this location, though still in the mid 50s to near 60F. Storms
have been ongoing for several hours and IR satellite indicates a
maturing MCS over northwest TX with a large area of cold cloud tops
over the eastern portions of the South Plains. Expect that hail
concerns should continue to be marginal heading into the early
morning hours as this system tracks east/northeast toward southwest
OK and north TX. For this reason, a watch is not expected though
brief periods of intensification are possible.

Additional isolated convection is developing further to the
west/southwest in the vicinity of the surface dryline near the
higher terrain of southwest TX. This convection is expected to
remain isolated, though could produce some hail as midlevel lapse
rates remain intact across this area.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33739914 34219923 34559945 34689986 34600035 34280080
            33900096 33120181 32510284 32020294 31770291 30690287
            30470243 30520196 31280107 33739914 

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