MD 0261 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TX SOUTH PLAINS VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0261 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2019 Areas affected...TX South Plains vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 060641Z - 060815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms may briefly intensify at times through early morning, possibly producing marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts. A watch is not anticipated at this time. DISCUSSION...Isolated strong to briefly severe stroms will continue the next several hours across the TX South Plains/western north TX vicinity. Current cells/bowing segments affecting Kent, Stonewall and King counties in TX have shown periodic intensification over the last hour or so. Brief pulses in MRMS MESH data suggesting hail size up to around 1-1.5 inches possible, though most recent trends have decreased. Furthermore, velocity data from KLBB has shown moderate midlevel rotation at times, further supporting hail potential, and possibly a strong to severe gust where boundary layer inhibition may be weak and/or downdrafts briefly intense. This band of strong convection was occurring ahead of a shortwave impulse ejecting across southwest TX currently and on the nose of stronger southeasterly return flow. Surface dewpoints are maximized in this location, though still in the mid 50s to near 60F. Storms have been ongoing for several hours and IR satellite indicates a maturing MCS over northwest TX with a large area of cold cloud tops over the eastern portions of the South Plains. Expect that hail concerns should continue to be marginal heading into the early morning hours as this system tracks east/northeast toward southwest OK and north TX. For this reason, a watch is not expected though brief periods of intensification are possible. Additional isolated convection is developing further to the west/southwest in the vicinity of the surface dryline near the higher terrain of southwest TX. This convection is expected to remain isolated, though could produce some hail as midlevel lapse rates remain intact across this area. ..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/06/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 33739914 34219923 34559945 34689986 34600035 34280080 33900096 33120181 32510284 32020294 31770291 30690287 30470243 30520196 31280107 33739914
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1h8DsId
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