MD 0267 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 74…75… FOR NORTHERN AL…MIDDLE TN…FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL KY
Mesoscale Discussion 0267
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020
Areas affected...Northern AL...Middle TN...Far South-Central KY
Concerning...Tornado Watch 74...75...
Valid 290650Z - 290815Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 74, 75 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for all severe hazards, include brief
tornadoes, will continue across middle TN and northern AL for the
next few hours. Less favorable downstream environment is expected to
preclude new watch issuance but short-lived, local watch extensions
may needed.
DISCUSSION...Radar imagery of the ongoing cluster of storms over the
southern portion of middle TN has shown an increase in forward speed
over the past half hour or so. Echo tops have also increased during
this time. These observations suggest a continued threat for severe
will likely exist downstream of these storms for at least the next
hour or so. Primary threat with this cluster is strong wind gusts,
although an brief embedded tornado and/or hail also remain possible.
Storm motion of this cluster was estimated to be northeast at 60 kt,
taking it to the edge of Tornado Watch 74 around 0730Z.
This fast northeastward motion will take the cluster ahead of the
ongoing moisture return into a thermodynamic environment
characterized by strong MLCIN, which should lead to a diminishing of
storm intensity. Isolated damaging wind gusts will still be possible
and short-lived, local watch extensions may needed. However, the
limited spatial and temporal severe threat will likely preclude new
watch issuance downstream.
A few stronger cells have also been noted within the line over
northwest AL. Estimated storm motion within these cells is
northeastward at 50 kt, taking them to the central AL/TN border
around 0700Z. Recent UAH SWIRLL soundings from Courtland AL and
Huntsville AL both show a warm layer around 700 mb, which is likely
leading to reduced updraft strength. Even so, the strong vertical
shear will likely compensate for this reduced instability, leading
to a continued severe threat for the next few hours.
..Mosier.. 03/29/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...
LAT...LON 35858663 36468598 36878469 36358421 35548438 34678560
34478766 35858663
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2IdYbNG
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