SPC MD 267

MD 0267 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS

MD 0267 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0267
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2019

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 062030Z - 062300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail may occur this afternoon into the
early evening. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a
shortwave trough across parts of central KS. Cloud cover has
generally been more prevalent across this area compared to locations
farther south, and instability should generally remain weak through
the evening. Although low to mid-level winds are more southerly per
KICT and KTOP VWPs, some speed shear is present in RAP forecast
soundings across parts of central/eastern KS. Related 30-35 kt of
effective bulk shear may be enough to support occasional updraft
organization, and marginally severe hail could occur as mid-level
lapse rates modestly steepen with the approach of the shortwave
trough. The overall severe threat will likely remain too isolated
and marginal to warrant watch issuance.

..Gleason/Hart.. 04/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37029806 37409834 38429838 39239783 39369645 39019546
            38039502 37479518 37069561 37029806 

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