SPC MD 273

MD 0273 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KS

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Mesoscale Discussion 0273
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019

Areas affected...far south-central Nebraska into north-central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 070643Z - 070745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail near 1 inch in diameter will be possible the
next 1-2 hours as storms track southeast from south-central Nebraska
into north-central KS.

DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms may continue to pose a
marginally severe hail threat the next 1-2 hours as they track
southeast from far south-central NE into north-central KS. These
storms were occurring in an area of weak forcing associated with the
northern stream shortwave trough moving across the central Plains
and in the vicinity of a surface trough. Steep midlevel lapse rates
around 7-8 C/km per 00z regional RAOBs and weak elevated instability
will continue to support some stronger updrafts over the next couple
of hours. As the storms track further southeast, they may encounter
some subsidence on the back side of a MCV currently over far
southeast NE/northwest MO/southwest IA. The impact of this
subsidence is evident in surface dewpoints falling into the mid 40s
across central KS the last couple of hours. Given the localized
nature of the threat, and that storms are expected to weaken in the
next couple of hours, a watch is not expected.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   40429894 40309844 39959763 39549742 39249742 39099766
            39139833 39419882 39759907 40179923 40429894 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2KdAzLH

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