MD 0273 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0273 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019 Areas affected...far south-central Nebraska into north-central KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 070643Z - 070745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail near 1 inch in diameter will be possible the next 1-2 hours as storms track southeast from south-central Nebraska into north-central KS. DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms may continue to pose a marginally severe hail threat the next 1-2 hours as they track southeast from far south-central NE into north-central KS. These storms were occurring in an area of weak forcing associated with the northern stream shortwave trough moving across the central Plains and in the vicinity of a surface trough. Steep midlevel lapse rates around 7-8 C/km per 00z regional RAOBs and weak elevated instability will continue to support some stronger updrafts over the next couple of hours. As the storms track further southeast, they may encounter some subsidence on the back side of a MCV currently over far southeast NE/northwest MO/southwest IA. The impact of this subsidence is evident in surface dewpoints falling into the mid 40s across central KS the last couple of hours. Given the localized nature of the threat, and that storms are expected to weaken in the next couple of hours, a watch is not expected. ..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/07/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 40429894 40309844 39959763 39549742 39249742 39099766 39139833 39419882 39759907 40179923 40429894
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2KdAzLH
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