MD 0292 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND…NORTHEASTERN SD…AND CENTRAL MN
Mesoscale Discussion 0292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2020
Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern ND...northeastern
SD...and central MN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 070656Z - 070930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail may occur through the early morning
hours. Watch issuance remains unlikely.
DISCUSSION...A couple of storms have gradually intensified over the
past hour across far southeastern ND into west-central MN. This is
probably related to the eastward translation of a 50-60 kt westerly
mid-level jet over the Dakotas, and a slight increase in a
southwesterly low-level jet. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates were noted
on the 00Z ABR sounding, which is supporting around 500-1250 J/kg of
MUCAPE per recent mesoanalysis estimates. Recent VWPs from KMPX and
KABR show strong speed shear from the top of the low-level inversion
to the equilibrium level. This shear will likely continue to support
the potential for organized storms, with mainly a large hail threat
due to their elevated nature. The overall severe risk is expected to
remain rather isolated through the early morning, and watch issuance
appears unlikely at this time.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/07/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...
LAT...LON 45649336 45549401 45669522 45639622 45509688 45249824
45509830 45949796 46549655 46639538 46509404 46179350
45649336
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/3aPW9Po
Be First to Comment